Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 22–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 1625 MCI 14:35 → TPA 18:15 · 22% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 457 MCI 21:25 → TPA 01:05 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1625 Southwest	MCI 14:35	TPA 18:15	22%	6%	0.3%	no record
WN 2665 Southwest	MCI 20:55	TPA 00:34	25%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 457 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 21:25	TPA 01:05	28%	7%	0.7%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON