Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: WN 4863 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 44%.

Nonstops that day


WN 4863 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 06:30	ALB 09:15	3%	2%	0.7%	84%
B6 2919 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 16:56	ALB 19:50	44%	23%	1.6%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albany on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MCO 09:10 → MDW 10:55WN 4037	1h 55m Chicago	MDW 12:50 → ALB 15:48WN 4755	6h 38m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	MCO 08:50 → BWI 11:15WN 2693	1h 40m Baltimore	BWI 12:55 → ALB 14:20WN 4880	5h 30m	100%	86%
American Details →	MCO 05:00 → CLT 06:45AA 1896	2h 06m Charlotte	CLT 08:51 → ALB 10:59AA 710	5h 59m	97%	86%
Southwest Details →	MCO 09:30 → BWI 11:45WN 2612	1h 40m Baltimore	BWI 13:25 → ALB 14:45WN 164	5h 15m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	MCO 06:05 → DTW 08:54DL 1201	1h 11m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → ALB 11:47DL 5522 · flown by Endeavor	5h 41m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:02 → DTW 11:45DL 2845	2h 58m Detroit	DTW 14:43 → ALB 16:25DL 3785 · flown by SkyWest	7h 23m	100%	85%
United Details →	MCO 09:40 → ORD 11:48UA 2683	3h 00m Chicago	ORD 14:48 → ALB 17:55UA 1634	8h 15m	100%	85%
American Details →	MCO 07:28 → PHL 10:05AA 1228	3h 00m Philadelphia	PHL 13:05 → ALB 14:29AA 6028 · flown by Piedmont	7h 03m	99%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MCO 16:05 → MDW 18:00WN 2658	50m Chicago	MDW 18:50 → ALB 21:50WN 4248	5h 45m	55%	42%
American Details →	MCO 16:29 → PHL 19:04AA 3153	46m Philadelphia	PHL 19:50 → ALB 21:23AA 5850 · flown by Piedmont	4h 54m	50%	35%
American Details →	MCO 15:45 → DFW 17:47AA 2143	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:38 → ALB 23:15AA 391	7h 30m	41%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON