Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 36%, against 26% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3115 at 07:20, 8%.

Safest bet today WN 3115 MCO 07:20 → BUF 10:02 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3262 MCO 16:17 → BUF 19:06 · 55% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Weather 36% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3115 Southwest	MCO 07:20	BUF 10:02	8%	1%	0.2%	no record
B6 1086 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 06:25	BUF 09:06	10%	3%	0.6%	70%
WN 839 Southwest	MCO 13:30	BUF 16:10	35%	9%	0.3%	no record
B6 1586 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 17:55	BUF 20:46	45%	22%	1.3%	64%
WN 2731 Southwest	MCO 20:05	BUF 22:45	50%	19%	1.2%	no record
WN 4832 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 19:55	BUF 22:40	51%	19%	0.9%	42%
F9 3262 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 16:17	BUF 19:06	55%	22%	1.1%	70%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON