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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 06:45, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MCO 06:45 → LAS 08:25WN 2365 1h 15m Las Vegas LAS 09:40 → BUR 10:55WN 2198 7h 10m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:45 → SLC 13:21DL 2031 1h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 15:05 → BUR 16:12DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest 8h 27m 96% 87%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 08:10 → DEN 10:00WN 2629 1h 45m Denver DEN 11:45 → BUR 13:20WN 579 8h 10m 100% 84%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 06:20 → DEN 08:10WN 2628 3h 30m Denver DEN 11:40 → BUR 13:14WN 2620 9h 54m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → MCO 08:00 → DEN 10:02UA 1714 1h 13m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 7h 48m 94% 81%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:50 → DAL 09:25WN 738 2h 30m Dallas DAL 11:55 → BUR 13:05WN 4076 8h 15m 100% 80%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 09:35 → BNA 10:35WN 2604 3h 25m Nashville BNA 14:00 → BUR 16:35WN 2363 10h 00m 100% 80%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:25 → MDW 09:15WN 2654 50m Chicago MDW 10:05 → BUR 12:25WN 2741 8h 00m 89% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MCO 15:41 → DEN 18:09UA 2845 1h 04m Denver DEN 19:13 → BUR 20:43UA 2411 8h 02m 70% 51%
AmericanDetails → MCO 07:30 → DFW 09:29AA 599 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:18 → BUR 11:54AA 1208 7h 24m 63% 46%
AmericanDetails → MCO 17:48 → DFW 19:47AA 1288 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:46 → BUR 21:58AA 2597 7h 10m 53% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON