Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2278 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–46%.

Safest bet that day WN 2278 MCO 09:00 → CLE 11:25 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest F9 1055 MCO 17:52 → CLE 20:42 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2278 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 09:00	CLE 11:25	13%	2%	0.8%	86%
UA 486 United Flight history →	MCO 11:35	CLE 14:06	13%	5%	0.8%	92%
F9 1915 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 05:20	CLE 07:56	16%	4%	0.6%	87%
WN 769 Southwest	MCO 11:35	CLE 14:03	18%	4%	0.7%	no record
F9 2667 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 11:05	CLE 13:43	23%	9%	0.9%	82%
UA 1970 United Flight history →	MCO 15:05	CLE 17:39	31%	9%	1.8%	59%
F9 1055 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 17:52	CLE 20:42	46%	21%	2.1%	65%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON