Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 25%, against 12% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2616 at 06:10, 4%.

Safest bet that day WN 2616 MCO 06:10 → CMH 08:20 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest F9 2757 MCO 17:40 → CMH 20:14 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Weather 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2616 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 06:10	CMH 08:20	4%	1%	0.8%	98%
WN 478 Southwest	MCO 07:00	CMH 09:18	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 1187 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 09:20	CMH 11:35	15%	3%	0.8%	88%
WN 1264 Southwest	MCO 09:20	CMH 11:37	16%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 1122 Southwest	MCO 14:50	CMH 17:08	33%	11%	0.7%	no record
WN 4945 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 17:30	CMH 19:55	46%	26%	1.3%	64%worse than usual
F9 2757 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 17:40	CMH 20:14	58%	31%	1.8%	63%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON