Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 37%, against 24% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1249 at 08:30, 18%.

Safest bet that day WN 1249 MCO 08:30 → CVG 10:40 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 1565 MCO 17:19 → CVG 19:46 · 53% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Weather 37% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1249 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 08:30	CVG 10:40	18%	4%	0.4%	91%
DL 511 Delta Flight history →	MCO 11:25	CVG 13:37	23%	4%	1.2%	80%
WN 1301 Southwest	MCO 14:30	CVG 16:49	37%	9%	0.7%	no record
DL 2824 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:18	CVG 21:42	42%	16%	2.3%	68%worse than usual
F9 1713 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 21:24	CVG 23:46	46%	17%	2.1%	80%worse than usual
F9 1565 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 17:19	CVG 19:46	53%	21%	2.3%	82%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON