Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2703 at 06:38 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–44%.

Safest bet that day WN 2703 MCO 06:38 → DAL 08:23 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1419 MCO 19:35 → DAL 21:20 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2703 Southwest	MCO 06:38	DAL 08:23	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 7 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 06:15	DAL 07:50	6%	1%	0.9%	93%
WN 2707 Southwest	MCO 07:33	DAL 09:19	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 738 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 07:50	DAL 09:25	11%	2%	0.8%	80%
WN 380 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 10:20	DAL 11:55	16%	3%	0.8%	65%
WN 354 Southwest	MCO 10:53	DAL 12:39	16%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 167 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 09:25	DAL 11:00	18%	3%	0.8%	73%
WN 1973 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 21:50	DAL 23:30	35%	11%	1.2%	56%
WN 1402 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 16:00	DAL 17:50	37%	10%	1.2%	58%
WN 1419 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 19:35	DAL 21:20	44%	16%	1.2%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON