Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2677 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 41–44%.

Safest bet that day AA 2677 MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 1481 MCO 17:08 → DFW 19:15 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2677 American Flight history →	MCO 05:30	DFW 07:26	7%	2%	0.9%	93%
AA 2975 American Flight history →	MCO 06:31	DFW 08:27	11%	3%	0.9%	87%
AA 599 American Flight history →	MCO 07:30	DFW 09:29	16%	3%	0.8%	89%
AA 2172 American Flight history →	MCO 08:31	DFW 10:30	16%	4%	0.8%	84%
F9 4017 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 05:40	DFW 07:33	16%	5%	1.2%	83%
AA 2961 American Flight history →	MCO 07:57	DFW 09:52	16%	4%	0.8%	93%
AA 2075 American Flight history →	MCO 09:30	DFW 11:24	19%	5%	0.8%	84%
AA 2124 American Flight history →	MCO 11:16	DFW 13:07	20%	7%	0.8%	84%
F9 2885 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 10:13	DFW 12:08	26%	11%	1.2%	83%
AA 2081 American Flight history →	MCO 14:24	DFW 16:35	27%	9%	0.9%	63%
AA 2143 American Flight history →	MCO 15:45	DFW 17:47	40%	13%	0.9%	46%
AA 2097 American Flight history →	MCO 16:47	DFW 18:50	41%	14%	1.3%	40%
AA 2385 American Flight history →	MCO 18:26	DFW 20:30	42%	16%	1.8%	30%
AA 1288 American Flight history →	MCO 17:48	DFW 19:47	44%	16%	1.6%	57%
F9 1481 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 17:08	DFW 19:15	44%	21%	2.1%	76%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON