Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1201 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–40%.

Safest bet that day DL 1201 MCO 06:05 → DTW 08:54 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 337 MCO 17:51 → DTW 20:54 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1201 Delta Flight history →	MCO 06:05	DTW 08:54	5%	2%	0.9%	93%
DL 2845 Delta Flight history →	MCO 09:02	DTW 11:45	12%	2%	1.0%	91%
F9 2529 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 09:07	DTW 11:55	16%	6%	1.0%	78%
DL 1455 Delta Flight history →	MCO 12:28	DTW 15:16	18%	3%	1.0%	79%
DL 1747 Delta Flight history →	MCO 14:13	DTW 17:08	24%	6%	1.0%	69%
DL 2084 Delta	MCO 14:06	DTW 16:41	26%	5%	1.0%	no record
DL 1133 Delta Flight history →	MCO 21:08	DTW 23:59	28%	11%	1.2%	65%
DL 2003 Delta Flight history →	MCO 16:05	DTW 19:04	30%	9%	1.6%	59%
F9 2713 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 15:01	DTW 17:51	36%	12%	1.3%	56%
DL 337 Delta Flight history →	MCO 17:51	DTW 20:54	40%	21%	1.2%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON