Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2821 at 10:45 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–50%.

Safest bet that day WN 2821 MCO 10:45 → FLL 11:56 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 1947 MCO 18:25 → FLL 19:37 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2821 Southwest	MCO 10:45	FLL 11:56	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
B6 2547 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 10:05	FLL 11:12	21%	7%	0.8%	80%
WN 1459 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 21:30	FLL 22:45	31%	10%	0.9%	63%
B6 1947 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 18:25	FLL 19:37	50%	23%	1.6%	65%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON