Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 29%, against 17% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4595 at 07:45, 9%.

Safest bet today WN 4595 MCO 07:45 → ISP 10:29 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1238 MCO 14:21 → ISP 17:12 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Weather 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4595 Southwest	MCO 07:45	ISP 10:29	9%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 4544 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 07:55	ISP 10:30	10%	1%	0.2%	94%
F9 3942 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:10	ISP 09:53	12%	4%	1.0%	83%
B6 846 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 20:59	ISP 23:47	36%	13%	1.6%	38%
WN 4840 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 20:55	ISP 23:45	37%	12%	1.2%	62%
B6 546 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 13:04	ISP 15:51	39%	12%	0.6%	90%worse than usual
WN 2890 Southwest	MCO 20:35	ISP 23:17	41%	13%	1.3%	no record
F9 1238 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 14:21	ISP 17:12	49%	20%	1.3%	83%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON