Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2862 at 06:18 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 2862 MCO 06:18 → LAS 08:10 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2735 MCO 15:20 → LAS 17:15 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2862 Southwest	MCO 06:18	LAS 08:10	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2365 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 06:45	LAS 08:25	7%	1%	0.7%	91%
WN 4696 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 10:00	LAS 11:45	15%	3%	0.6%	88%
WN 2734 Southwest	MCO 09:38	LAS 11:30	18%	2%	0.7%	no record
F9 1875 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:04	LAS 08:09	19%	5%	1.2%	90%
B6 2821 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 09:41	LAS 11:41	25%	5%	0.8%	89%worse than usual
WN 2648 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 17:20	LAS 19:15	39%	13%	1.0%	67%
F9 3913 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 19:21	LAS 21:17	40%	19%	2.3%	69%
WN 2735 Southwest	MCO 15:20	LAS 17:15	44%	9%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	MCO 06:50 → STL 08:20WN 2570	55m St Louis	STL 09:15 → LAS 10:40WN 2327	6h 50m	100%	93%
Southwest Details →	MCO 06:15 → DAL 07:50WN 7	1h 25m Dallas	DAL 09:15 → LAS 10:04WN 1665	6h 49m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	MCO 06:40 → AUS 08:15WN 2594	1h 10m Austin	AUS 09:25 → LAS 10:10WN 322	6h 30m	94%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON