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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 10:45, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Long Beach on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:45 → SLC 13:21DL 2031 1h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 15:05 → LGB 16:06DL 3793 · flown by SkyWest 8h 21m 96% 86%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 06:45 → LAS 08:25WN 2365 1h 28m Las Vegas LAS 09:53 → LGB 11:05WN 4375 7h 20m 99% 84%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 08:15 → MDW 10:00WN 1340 2h 00m Chicago MDW 12:00 → LGB 14:38WN 3035 9h 23m 100% 84%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:50 → AUS 09:30WN 1435 3h 45m Austin AUS 13:15 → LGB 14:10WN 4915 9h 20m 100% 83%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 13:30 → SMF 16:00WN 2709 3h 35m Sacramento SMF 19:35 → LGB 21:05WN 4934 10h 35m 100% 83%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 11:00 → BNA 12:00WN 4713 2h 35m Nashville BNA 14:35 → LGB 16:50WN 1427 8h 50m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025 1h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 11:05 → LGB 11:59DL 1116 7h 44m 94% 82%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 12:30 → DEN 14:20WN 2631 3h 55m Denver DEN 18:15 → LGB 20:00WN 1037 10h 30m 100% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MCO 16:45 → SLC 19:25DL 2036 1h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 20:40 → LGB 21:32DL 3124 7h 47m 71% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON