Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 28%, against 17% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4139 at 07:05, 9%.

Safest bet that day WN 4139 MCO 07:05 → MCI 09:00 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 4897 MCO 18:05 → MCI 20:03 · 58% chance 15+ min late

Weather 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4139 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 07:05	MCI 09:00	9%	2%	0.5%	93%
WN 4142 Southwest	MCO 08:08	MCI 10:05	12%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 989 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 09:05	MCI 10:55	15%	4%	0.4%	77%
WN 2969 Southwest	MCO 10:13	MCI 12:10	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 3133 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 22:15	MCI 00:10	37%	13%	1.2%	57%
WN 2123 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 15:35	MCI 17:30	51%	16%	1.0%	52%
WN 4897 Southwest	MCO 18:05	MCI 20:03	58%	21%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON