Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 33%, against 19% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2779 at 09:00, 14%.

Safest bet today WN 2779 MCO 09:00 → MEM 10:11 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4898 MCO 20:35 → MEM 21:45 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Weather 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2779 Southwest	MCO 09:00	MEM 10:11	14%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 3345 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 14:20	MEM 15:35	37%	11%	0.5%	65%
WN 2750 Southwest	MCO 14:25	MEM 15:36	37%	11%	0.5%	no record
WN 4898 Southwest	MCO 20:35	MEM 21:45	46%	12%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON