Today: AA 2894 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–46%.

Safest bet today AA 2894 MCO 06:01 → MIA 07:12 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2072 MCO 18:34 → MIA 19:50 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 29% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 2894 American Flight history →	MCO 06:01	MIA 07:12	5%	2%	0.2%	90%
AA 1733 American Flight history →	MCO 07:34	MIA 08:46	10%	4%	0.3%	90%
AA 2593 American Flight history →	MCO 08:35	MIA 09:49	10%	4%	0.3%	95%
AA 1693 American Flight history →	MCO 08:53	MIA 10:02	12%	4%	0.3%	91%
AA 2240 American Flight history →	MCO 10:00	MIA 11:15	14%	4%	0.2%	88%
AA 1652 American	MCO 10:18	MIA 11:27	17%	5%	0.2%	no record
AA 1712 American Flight history →	MCO 11:02	MIA 12:14	20%	6%	0.2%	83%
WN 449 Southwest	MCO 10:40	MIA 11:49	22%	4%	0.2%	no record
AA 2109 American	MCO 15:40	MIA 16:58	33%	14%	0.4%	no record
AA 2092 American Flight history →	MCO 15:39	MIA 16:50	36%	14%	0.4%	52%
WN 4950 Southwest	MCO 21:55	MIA 23:04	37%	11%	1.2%	no record
WN 1516 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 20:50	MIA 22:10	39%	10%	1.2%	75%worse than usual
AA 1610 American	MCO 19:43	MIA 20:51	42%	13%	1.3%	no record
AA 2147 American Flight history →	MCO 19:40	MIA 20:57	46%	14%	1.3%	40%
AA 1642 American Flight history →	MCO 18:40	MIA 19:54	46%	14%	1.8%	66%worse than usual
AA 2072 American Flight history →	MCO 18:34	MIA 19:50	46%	14%	1.8%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON