Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 46%, against 19% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1208 at 15:00, 45%.

Safest bet today DL 1208 MCO 15:00 → MSP 17:39 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest DL 2225 MCO 18:24 → MSP 21:00 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Weather 46% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1208 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:00	MSP 17:39	45%	14%	0.7%	74%worse than usual
DL 1885 Delta Flight history →	MCO 21:07	MSP 23:38	45%	19%	0.8%	65%
DL 2225 Delta Flight history →	MCO 18:24	MSP 21:00	49%	19%	0.8%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON