tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 06:45, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Oakland on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MCO 06:45 → LAS 08:25WN 2365 1h 31m Las Vegas LAS 09:56 → OAK 11:33WN 3968 7h 48m 100% 88%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:10 → SAN 09:10WN 2695 1h 35m San Diego SAN 10:45 → OAK 12:25WN 5087 8h 15m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:45 → SLC 13:21DL 2031 1h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 15:20 → OAK 16:21DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest 8h 36m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCO 16:45 → SLC 19:25DL 2036 3h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest 10h 05m 93% 85%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 06:20 → DEN 08:10WN 2628 2h 45m Denver DEN 10:55 → OAK 12:25WN 1577 9h 05m 100% 85%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 06:15 → DAL 07:50WN 7 1h 00m Dallas DAL 08:50 → OAK 10:30WN 1268 7h 15m 93% 82%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 08:10 → DEN 10:00WN 2629 3h 41m Denver DEN 13:41 → OAK 15:18WN 1698 10h 08m 100% 77%
AlaskaDetails → MCO 07:37 → SAN 09:37AS 708 2h 53m San Diego SAN 12:30 → OAK 14:10AS 3218 · flown by SkyWest 9h 33m 97% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON