Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:46 am at Orlando)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 10:45, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 37% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 10:45 → SLC 13:21DL 2031	2h 14m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:35 → ONT 16:30DL 4443 · flown by SkyWest	8h 45m	96%	81%
Southwest Details →	MCO 13:30 → SMF 16:00WN 2709	3h 00m Sacramento	SMF 19:00 → ONT 20:35WN 1095	10h 05m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	MCO 16:45 → SLC 19:25DL 2036	3h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614	10h 03m	92%	77%
United Details →	MCO 14:25 → ORD 16:43UA 2481	3h 35m Chicago	ORD 20:18 → ONT 22:51UA 658	11h 26m	96%	74%
Southwest Details →	MCO 10:00 → LAS 11:45WN 4696	2h 51m Las Vegas	LAS 14:36 → ONT 15:48WN 2554	8h 48m	100%	73%
Southwest Details →	MCO 11:00 → BNA 12:00WN 4713	1h 55m Nashville	BNA 13:55 → ONT 16:00WN 855	8h 00m	95%	69%
Southwest Details →	MCO 17:20 → LAS 19:15WN 2648	3h 41m Las Vegas	LAS 22:56 → ONT 00:07 +1WN 4570	9h 47m	92%	67%
Southwest Details →	MCO 12:30 → DEN 14:20WN 2631	4h 00m Denver	DEN 18:20 → ONT 19:44WN 1827	10h 14m	100%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MCO 19:25 → SLC 22:11DL 1691	48m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614	7h 23m	37%	31%
American Details →	MCO 17:35 → CLT 19:34AA 2082	1h 09m Charlotte	CLT 20:43 → ONT 22:34AA 3036	7h 59m	49%	30%
American Details →	MCO 18:26 → DFW 20:30AA 2385	57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:27 → ONT 22:32AA 711	7h 06m	45%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON