tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 301 Alaska Flight history → MCO 17:29 PDX 20:34 33% 11% 2.1% 70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:00 → MSP 09:26DL 1250 1h 33m Minneapolis MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:36DL 1661 8h 36m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → MCO 11:17 → MSP 13:43DL 1730 2h 15m Minneapolis MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008 9h 18m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → MCO 08:00 → DEN 10:02UA 1714 3h 25m Denver DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455 10h 13m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206 10h 28m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025 1h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 7h 55m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → MCO 15:00 → MSP 17:39DL 1208 3h 59m Minneapolis MSP 21:38 → PDX 23:18DL 2391 11h 18m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → MCO 12:05 → ATL 13:45DL 1658 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503 9h 51m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → MCO 10:00 → DEN 12:00UA 1022 4h 00m Denver DEN 16:00 → PDX 17:46UA 1337 10h 46m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MCO 16:45 → ATL 18:35DL 1642 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 19:40 → PDX 21:44DL 357 7h 59m 59% 48%
AmericanDetails → MCO 07:52 → DFW 09:48AA 2961 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:40 → PDX 12:40AA 2286 7h 48m 68% 48%
AmericanDetails → MCO 17:48 → DFW 19:47AA 1288 1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:49 → PDX 22:51AA 2283 8h 03m 54% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON