Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 48%, against 30% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2803 at 21:00, 39%.

Safest bet today WN 2803 MCO 21:00 → PHL 23:37 · 39% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4170 MCO 15:54 → PHL 18:39 · 56% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Weather 48% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 12 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2803 Southwest	MCO 21:00	PHL 23:37	39%	12%	0.2%	no record
AA 2076 American Flight history →	MCO 19:59	PHL 22:43	43%	15%	0.8%	56%
WN 2679 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 14:40	PHL 17:15	45%	14%	0.3%	29%
AA 2125 American Flight history →	MCO 14:37	PHL 17:20	45%	15%	0.8%	52%
AA 1646 American	MCO 17:55	PHL 20:32	48%	15%	0.8%	no record
AA 2952 American Flight history →	MCO 18:40	PHL 21:18	48%	15%	0.8%	59%
AA 2065 American Flight history →	MCO 15:50	PHL 18:33	48%	18%	1.0%	36%
AA 3153 American Flight history →	MCO 16:31	PHL 19:04	49%	15%	0.9%	70%worse than usual
AA 3268 American	MCO 14:53	PHL 16:53	51%	15%	0.8%	no record
F9 2508 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 20:59	PHL 23:38	53%	25%	2.3%	48%
F9 4404 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 19:21	PHL 22:08	56%	30%	2.3%	59%worse than usual
F9 4170 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 15:54	PHL 18:39	56%	24%	3.0%	72%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON