Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2727 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–47%.

Safest bet that day AA 2727 MCO 05:56 → PHX 07:26 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2105 MCO 17:20 → PHX 18:55 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2727 American	MCO 05:56	PHX 07:26	11%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 2776 Southwest	MCO 07:40	PHX 09:08	15%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 2015 American Flight history →	MCO 07:30	PHX 09:02	20%	3%	0.9%	87%
AA 1605 American	MCO 07:16	PHX 08:49	22%	3%	0.9%	no record
F9 1085 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 09:00	PHX 10:30	28%	7%	1.2%	83%worse than usual
WN 2805 Southwest	MCO 12:40	PHX 14:13	30%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2105 American Flight history →	MCO 17:20	PHX 18:55	47%	14%	1.3%	52%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	MCO 06:15 → DAL 07:50WN 7	1h 00m Dallas	DAL 08:50 → PHX 09:20WN 4410	6h 05m	94%	80%
Southwest Details →	MCO 07:50 → AUS 09:30WN 1435	1h 05m Austin	AUS 10:35 → PHX 11:06WN 4472	6h 16m	90%	79%
Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → PHX 09:01DL 348	6h 31m	95%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON