Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 23%, against 12% on a calm day. Safest: WN 563 at 06:36, 4%.

Safest bet that day WN 563 MCO 06:36 → PIT 09:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3369 MCO 17:36 → PIT 20:00 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Weather 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 563 Southwest	MCO 06:36	PIT 09:00	4%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 4309 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 07:30	PIT 09:50	8%	2%	0.8%	94%
WN 4811 Southwest	MCO 09:00	PIT 11:23	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2781 Southwest	MCO 11:15	PIT 13:38	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
F9 1620 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 11:08	PIT 13:40	24%	11%	0.8%	77%
WN 3379 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 13:40	PIT 16:00	26%	5%	0.7%	73%
WN 353 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 22:25	PIT 00:55	31%	10%	1.2%	48%
WN 4943 Southwest	MCO 16:01	PIT 18:25	35%	10%	1.2%	no record
WN 3451 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 19:20	PIT 21:50	38%	14%	1.3%	58%
WN 3369 Southwest	MCO 17:36	PIT 20:00	39%	14%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON