Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4310 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 42–46%.

Safest bet that day WN 4310 MCO 07:20 → SAT 09:05 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 2797 MCO 21:55 → SAT 23:54 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4310 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 07:20	SAT 09:05	8%	1%	0.2%	98%
WN 1679 Southwest	MCO 08:00	SAT 09:52	10%	2%	0.2%	no record
F9 1653 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:00	SAT 08:56	21%	5%	0.7%	82%
WN 359 Southwest	MCO 13:53	SAT 15:51	33%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 4834 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 16:00	SAT 17:50	42%	10%	0.8%	64%
WN 2797 Southwest	MCO 21:55	SAT 23:54	46%	16%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON