Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2802 at 10:00 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 46–47%.

Safest bet that day UA 2802 MCO 10:00 → SFO 13:02 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 369 MCO 19:57 → SFO 22:41 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2802 United	MCO 10:00	SFO 13:02	16%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 2017 United Flight history →	MCO 10:00	SFO 12:44	16%	6%	0.7%	70%
UA 2855 United Flight history →	MCO 08:09	SFO 10:53	19%	7%	0.4%	93%worse than usual
UA 2620 United Flight history →	MCO 18:54	SFO 21:39	46%	16%	1.9%	70%worse than usual
AS 369 Alaska Flight history →	MCO 19:57	SFO 22:41	47%	15%	2.1%	73%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	MCO 06:40 → AUS 08:15WN 2594	1h 35m Austin	AUS 09:50 → SFO 11:34WN 3582	7h 54m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672	8h 18m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	MCO 10:45 → SLC 13:21DL 2031	1h 49m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:10 → SFO 16:12DL 1088	8h 27m	96%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON