Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2025 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–36%.

Safest bet that day DL 2025 MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 1691 MCO 19:25 → SLC 22:11 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2025 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:15	SLC 09:55	12%	3%	0.3%	94%
DL 2031 Delta Flight history →	MCO 10:45	SLC 13:21	14%	3%	1.0%	85%
DL 2036 Delta Flight history →	MCO 16:45	SLC 19:25	33%	12%	1.3%	56%
DL 1140 Delta	MCO 16:46	SLC 19:33	35%	11%	1.3%	no record
DL 1691 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:25	SLC 22:11	36%	14%	1.8%	77%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548	1h 12m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830	6h 44m	92%	81%
Southwest Details →	MCO 06:40 → AUS 08:15WN 2594	1h 00m Austin	AUS 09:15 → SLC 11:00WN 403	6h 20m	88%	78%
Southwest Details →	MCO 11:00 → BNA 12:00WN 4713	1h 10m Nashville	BNA 13:10 → SLC 15:38WN 4634	6h 38m	93%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON