tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Love Field, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 34% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2709 Southwest Flight history → MCO 13:30 SMF 16:00 31% 9% 0.7% 54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MCO 06:15 → DAL 07:50WN 7 1h 25m Dallas DAL 09:15 → SMF 10:57WN 2046 7h 42m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025 1h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 8h 01m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:28 → LAX 08:35DL 484 3h 30m Los Angeles LAX 12:05 → SMF 13:32DL 3812 · flown by SkyWest 10h 04m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:00 → MSP 09:26DL 1250 58m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 8h 09m 95% 86%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 06:45 → LAS 08:25WN 2365 1h 10m Las Vegas LAS 09:35 → SMF 11:10WN 1122 7h 25m 97% 86%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 06:20 → DEN 08:10WN 2628 2h 10m Denver DEN 10:20 → SMF 11:55WN 1740 8h 35m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:45 → SLC 13:21DL 2031 2h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 15:25 → SMF 16:07DL 1342 8h 22m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → MCO 16:45 → SLC 19:25DL 2036 3h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582 9h 59m 95% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MCO 19:25 → SLC 22:11DL 1691 53m Salt Lake City SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582 7h 19m 47% 42%
AlaskaDetails → MCO 16:52 → SEA 20:09AS 419 46m Seattle SEA 20:55 → SMF 22:48AS 1427 8h 56m 44% 33%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 09:20 → LAX 11:25WN 4495 50m Los Angeles LAX 12:15 → SMF 13:35WN 265 7h 15m 34% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON