Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:39 am at Orlando)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 4999 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 10:50	STT 13:50	15%	4%	0.2%	81%
WN 4810 Southwest	MCO 11:00	STT 14:09	18%	7%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte Amalie on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MCO 10:00 → MIA 11:15AA 2240	1h 53m Miami	MIA 13:08 → STT 16:00AA 2738	6h 00m	95%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MCO 11:02 → MIA 12:14AA 1712	54m Miami	MIA 13:08 → STT 16:00AA 2738	4h 58m	73%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON