Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:42 pm at Harrisburg); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 2857 at 18:22, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 2857 Delta Flight history →	MDT 18:22	ATL 20:35	18%	4%	0.6%	83%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MDT 17:55 → ORD 19:05UA 2860	1h 04m Chicago	ORD 20:09 → ATL 23:30UA 2770	5h 35m	77%	64%
American Details →	MDT 17:43 → CLT 19:29AA 5275 · flown by PSA	3h 24m Charlotte	CLT 22:53 → ATL 00:09 +1AA 1656	6h 26m	97%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON