Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:26 pm at Harrisburg); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via O'Hare, leaving 17:55, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Boston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MDT 17:55 → ORD 19:05UA 2860	2h 36m Chicago	ORD 21:41 → BOS 01:14 +1UA 1779	7h 19m	92%	74%
Delta Details →	MDT 18:22 → ATL 20:35DL 2857	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → BOS 01:20 +1DL 865	6h 58m	95%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MDT 17:43 → CLT 19:29AA 5275 · flown by PSA	56m Charlotte	CLT 20:25 → BOS 22:34AA 1843	4h 51m	74%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON