Today: PT 5932 at 15:29 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–26%.

Safest bet today PT 5932 MDT 15:29 → CLT 17:09 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5092 MDT 14:13 → CLT 15:13 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


PT 5932 Piedmont	MDT 15:29	CLT 17:09	17%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 5275 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MDT 17:43	CLT 19:29	25%	8%	0.9%	62%
OH 5091 PSA	MDT 17:53	CLT 19:36	26%	8%	0.9%	no record
OH 5092 PSA	MDT 14:13	CLT 15:13	28%	8%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON