Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:07 am at Harrisburg); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 4065 at 12:45, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 4065 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MDT 12:45	DTW 14:21	13%	6%	0.4%	78%
DL 4891 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MDT 17:34	DTW 19:14	44%	19%	1.8%	56%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MDT 11:41 → ORD 12:55AA 4746 · flown by Republic	2h 11m Chicago	ORD 15:06 → DTW 17:41AA 3980 · flown by Envoy	6h 00m	99%	85%
United Details →	MDT 17:55 → ORD 19:05UA 2860	2h 15m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → DTW 23:54UA 3475 · flown by Republic	5h 59m	92%	81%
Delta Details →	MDT 18:22 → ATL 20:35DL 2857	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → DTW 00:59 +1DL 2940	6h 37m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	MDT 11:41 → ATL 13:42DL 1248	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 17:11 → DTW 19:14DL 2067	7h 33m	99%	71%
United Details →	MDT 14:11 → ORD 15:30UA 5568 · flown by SkyWest	2h 35m Chicago	ORD 18:05 → DTW 20:25UA 642	6h 14m	97%	71%
American Details →	MDT 17:43 → CLT 19:29AA 5275 · flown by PSA	3h 22m Charlotte	CLT 22:51 → DTW 00:41 +1AA 370	6h 58m	98%	70%
Delta Details →	MDT 14:00 → ATL 16:08DL 4717 · flown by Endeavor	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 19:11 → DTW 21:11DL 1262	7h 11m	100%	67%
United Details →	MDT 14:52 → IAD 15:50UA 4268 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 32m Dulles	IAD 17:22 → DTW 19:02UA 6246 · flown by Mesa	4h 10m	90%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MDT 12:02 → CLT 13:48AA 5835 · flown by Piedmont	49m Charlotte	CLT 14:37 → DTW 16:29AA 1897	4h 27m	61%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON