Today: UA 2684 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–34%.

Safest bet today UA 2684 MDT 06:30 → ORD 07:42 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 3243 MDT 19:45 → ORD 21:16 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2684 United Flight history →	MDT 06:30	ORD 07:42	7%	3%	0.4%	85%
AA 4746 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MDT 11:41	ORD 12:55	9%	2%	0.2%	87%
YX 3463 Republic	MDT 14:09	ORD 15:29	11%	2%	0.2%	no record
YX 4802 Republic	MDT 15:10	ORD 16:24	11%	2%	0.2%	no record
AA 1672 American	MDT 12:07	ORD 13:14	14%	4%	0.3%	no record
UA 5568 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MDT 14:11	ORD 15:30	16%	5%	0.5%	56%
OO 6054 SkyWest	MDT 10:40	ORD 11:46	17%	4%	0.5%	no record
YX 4799 Republic	MDT 20:09	ORD 21:23	20%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 2134 United	MDT 17:49	ORD 18:57	22%	4%	0.2%	no record
UA 2860 United Flight history →	MDT 17:55	ORD 19:05	24%	4%	0.3%	57%
AA 3243 American Flight history →	MDT 19:45	ORD 21:16	34%	8%	1.9%	62%
UA 4185 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	MDT 10:40	ORD 11:56	6%	3%	0.0%	94%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON