Today: WN 385 at 09:40 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–27%.

Safest bet today WN 385 MDW 09:40 → ABQ 11:37 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2010 MDW 21:30 → ABQ 23:27 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 385 Southwest	MDW 09:40	ABQ 11:37	9%	1%	0.1%	no record
WN 2719 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 12:05	ABQ 14:00	14%	2%	0.1%	81%
WN 2010 Southwest	MDW 21:30	ABQ 23:27	27%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON