Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:09 pm at Chicago); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 4489 Southwest	MDW 18:50	ALB 21:49	26%	4%	0.1%	no record
WN 4248 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 18:50	ALB 21:50	26%	4%	0.1%	43%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albany on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albany is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 14:30 → BWI 17:25WN 1020	2h 20m Baltimore	BWI 19:45 → ALB 21:11WN 2357	5h 41m	93%	77%
Southwest Details →	MDW 17:20 → BWI 20:15WN 4616	2h 20m Baltimore	BWI 22:35 → ALB 00:02 +1WN 4588	5h 42m	94%	76%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	1h 16m Atlanta	ATL 21:38 → ALB 23:59DL 2584	5h 49m	84%	58%
Southwest Details →	MDW 13:40 → MCO 17:30WN 2819	3h 05m Orlando	MCO 20:35 → ALB 23:32WN 4983	8h 52m	100%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON