Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1285 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 1285 MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 2144 MDW 12:11 → ATL 15:13 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1285 Delta Flight history →	MDW 06:00	ATL 08:57	7%	2%	1.2%	90%
WN 223 Southwest	MDW 08:30	ATL 11:37	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2417 Delta Flight history →	MDW 12:41	ATL 15:43	12%	3%	0.8%	86%
WN 1837 Southwest	MDW 07:05	ATL 10:12	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1728 Delta Flight history →	MDW 17:10	ATL 20:22	13%	3%	0.8%	74%
DL 1063 Delta Flight history →	MDW 11:05	ATL 14:01	14%	3%	0.8%	90%
WN 3054 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 07:15	ATL 10:05	16%	2%	0.6%	93%
WN 4154 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 08:55	ATL 11:45	16%	2%	0.6%	86%
WN 2826 Southwest	MDW 12:53	ATL 15:59	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4140 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 18:50	ATL 21:50	24%	5%	0.6%	36%
WN 4592 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 14:40	ATL 17:35	25%	5%	0.6%	41%
WN 4606 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 11:00	ATL 13:50	27%	3%	0.6%	38%
F9 2292 Frontier Flight history →	MDW 06:05	ATL 09:22	28%	6%	1.3%	71%
F9 2144 Frontier Flight history →	MDW 12:11	ATL 15:13	33%	10%	1.0%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON