Today: WN 4902 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–27%.

Safest bet today WN 4902 MDW 06:45 → AUS 09:35 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4568 MDW 15:45 → AUS 18:29 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


WN 4902 Southwest	MDW 06:45	AUS 09:35	9%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 4432 Southwest	MDW 09:55	AUS 12:41	21%	3%	0.3%	no record
WN 2834 Southwest	MDW 21:40	AUS 00:26	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2727 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 09:40	AUS 12:15	22%	3%	0.3%	84%
WN 775 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 21:35	AUS 00:10	22%	5%	0.6%	56%
WN 3171 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 18:20	AUS 20:55	27%	6%	0.6%	53%
WN 2832 Southwest	MDW 11:50	AUS 14:41	28%	4%	0.3%	no record
WN 2728 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 11:50	AUS 14:25	32%	4%	0.3%	71%
WN 4568 Southwest	MDW 15:45	AUS 18:29	39%	4%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON