Today: WN 2731 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet today WN 2731 MDW 07:45 → BDL 10:55 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 4290 MDW 18:45 → BDL 21:54 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2731 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 07:45	BDL 10:55	8%	1%	0.1%	98%
WN 351 Southwest	MDW 07:50	BDL 10:59	8%	1%	0.1%	no record
WN 1011 Southwest	MDW 12:42	BDL 15:52	15%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 692 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 13:30	BDL 16:35	17%	3%	0.2%	79%
WN 1603 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 19:50	BDL 23:00	20%	5%	0.6%	43%
WN 4290 Southwest	MDW 18:45	BDL 21:54	22%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON