Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Today: WN 455 at 09:55 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–21%.

Safest bet today WN 455 MDW 09:55 → BHM 11:46 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4470 MDW 22:15 → BHM 00:05 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 455 Southwest	MDW 09:55	BHM 11:46	8%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 496 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 14:05	BHM 15:45	16%	4%	0.6%	67%
WN 4470 Southwest	MDW 22:15	BHM 00:05	21%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON