Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4756 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 4756 MDW 07:05 → BNA 08:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1073 MDW 18:40 → BNA 20:10 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4756 Southwest	MDW 07:05	BNA 08:35	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2959 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 07:15	BNA 08:40	6%	1%	0.5%	70%
WN 1529 Southwest	MDW 08:35	BNA 10:05	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 549 Southwest	MDW 11:50	BNA 13:20	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2733 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 11:20	BNA 12:45	15%	2%	0.5%	55%
WN 4091 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 21:40	BNA 23:10	16%	3%	0.5%	65%
WN 2199 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 17:05	BNA 18:35	18%	4%	0.5%	62%
WN 1073 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 18:40	BNA 20:10	18%	3%	0.5%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON