Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Denver, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Burbank on time.

Nonstops that day


WN 2741 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 10:05	BUR 12:25	13%	2%	0.7%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2989	1h 40m Denver	DEN 08:30 → BUR 10:03WN 1557	6h 48m	100%	93%
Southwest Details →	MDW 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2858	1h 21m Phoenix	PHX 08:16 → BUR 09:43WN 3593	6h 23m	98%	89%
Southwest Details →	MDW 06:30 → LAS 08:20WN 1182	1h 20m Las Vegas	LAS 09:40 → BUR 10:55WN 2198	6h 25m	99%	89%
Southwest Details →	MDW 07:30 → LAS 09:20WN 347	1h 35m Las Vegas	LAS 10:55 → BUR 12:10WN 1529	6h 40m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	MDW 08:40 → PHX 10:20WN 3016	2h 25m Phoenix	PHX 12:45 → BUR 14:05WN 1493	7h 25m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	MDW 06:50 → DEN 08:20WN 2765	3h 20m Denver	DEN 11:40 → BUR 13:13WN 2620	8h 23m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	MDW 07:10 → PHX 08:45WN 2520	1h 11m Phoenix	PHX 09:56 → BUR 11:23WN 397	6h 13m	95%	83%
Southwest Details →	MDW 10:05 → SJC 12:30WN 3752	1h 35m San Jose	SJC 14:05 → BUR 15:15WN 4931	7h 10m	99%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON