Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1799 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 1799 MDW 05:01 → BWI 07:59 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2850 MDW 18:25 → BWI 21:22 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1799 Southwest	MDW 05:01	BWI 07:59	4%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 973 Southwest	MDW 07:20	BWI 10:18	5%	1%	0.3%	no record
WN 1355 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 08:55	BWI 11:45	7%	1%	0.2%	90%
WN 2742 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 07:00	BWI 09:45	7%	1%	0.3%	91%
WN 2848 Southwest	MDW 12:45	BWI 15:43	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2744 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 11:55	BWI 14:45	12%	2%	0.6%	73%
WN 2880 Southwest	MDW 11:00	BWI 13:58	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2851 Southwest	MDW 20:55	BWI 23:52	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 1020 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 14:30	BWI 17:25	16%	4%	0.6%	42%
WN 4616 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 17:20	BWI 20:15	18%	5%	0.6%	44%
WN 2850 Southwest	MDW 18:25	BWI 21:22	26%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON