Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:36 pm at Chicago); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 29% (calm day: 18%). Best bet: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 16:55, 71% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 16:55 → LAS 18:45WN 2797	3h 20m Las Vegas	LAS 22:05 → BZN 01:15 +1WN 992	9h 20m	98%	71%
Southwest Details →	MDW 16:15 → DEN 18:00WN 2769	3h 45m Denver	DEN 21:45 → BZN 23:35WN 1505	8h 20m	97%	67%
Southwest Details →	MDW 18:00 → DEN 19:45WN 1497	1h 50m Denver	DEN 21:35 → BZN 23:22WN 2290	6h 22m	89%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON