Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4093 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 4093 MDW 07:45 → CMH 10:05 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 4043 MDW 19:00 → CMH 21:15 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4093 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 07:45	CMH 10:05	5%	1%	0.5%	93%
WN 4500 Southwest	MDW 07:55	CMH 10:14	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4660 Southwest	MDW 12:45	CMH 15:04	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 114 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 11:05	CMH 13:15	13%	2%	0.5%	82%
WN 4594 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 16:40	CMH 18:55	16%	3%	0.5%	64%
WN 1261 Southwest	MDW 16:15	CMH 18:34	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4043 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 19:00	CMH 21:15	18%	4%	0.5%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON