Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1303 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 1303 MDW 07:45 → CVG 09:58 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2756 MDW 19:05 → CVG 21:20 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1303 Southwest	MDW 07:45	CVG 09:58	6%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 1247 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 13:00	CVG 15:10	15%	2%	0.5%	56%
WN 2484 Southwest	MDW 19:30	CVG 21:44	20%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2756 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 19:05	CVG 21:20	21%	3%	0.6%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON