Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 738 at 05:16 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 738 MDW 05:16 → DAL 07:41 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2961 MDW 18:25 → DAL 20:40 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 738 Southwest	MDW 05:16	DAL 07:41	2%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 1377 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 05:00	DAL 07:15	3%	1%	0.4%	96%
WN 3796 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 06:40	DAL 09:00	3%	1%	0.4%	96%
WN 1426 Southwest	MDW 07:16	DAL 09:40	4%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 2864 Southwest	MDW 09:41	DAL 12:05	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2757 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 12:20	DAL 14:35	15%	3%	0.6%	71%
WN 35 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 11:00	DAL 13:15	15%	2%	0.6%	50%
WN 198 Southwest	MDW 15:55	DAL 18:19	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2865 Southwest	MDW 14:35	DAL 16:58	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1005 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 20:40	DAL 22:55	18%	4%	0.6%	50%
WN 2758 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 16:20	DAL 18:35	18%	3%	0.6%	52%
WN 2867 Southwest	MDW 20:00	DAL 22:20	20%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2868 Southwest	MDW 21:20	DAL 23:41	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2961 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 18:25	DAL 20:40	25%	5%	0.6%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON