Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2869 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 2869 MDW 06:00 → DCA 08:58 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1157 MDW 17:05 → DCA 19:55 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 37% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2869 Southwest	MDW 06:00	DCA 08:58	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 4976 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 06:00	DCA 08:45	7%	2%	0.7%	95%
WN 467 Southwest	MDW 08:50	DCA 11:49	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2569 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 08:15	DCA 11:10	13%	2%	0.7%	91%
WN 1172 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 20:10	DCA 23:05	17%	6%	0.6%	31%
WN 4320 Southwest	MDW 12:50	DCA 15:48	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2761 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 12:45	DCA 15:35	19%	4%	0.6%	75%
WN 439 Southwest	MDW 11:10	DCA 14:08	20%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1294 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 11:15	DCA 14:00	24%	5%	0.6%	56%
WN 1157 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 17:05	DCA 19:55	30%	7%	0.6%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON