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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Today: WN 2989 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–27%.

Safest bet today WN 2989 MDW 05:15 → DEN 06:50 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 4321 MDW 18:25 → DEN 19:55 · 27% chance 15+ min late
Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

WN 2989 Southwest Flight history → MDW 05:15 DEN 06:50 4% 1% 0.2% 98%
WN 2875 Southwest MDW 06:05 DEN 07:38 5% 1% 0.2% no record
WN 2765 Southwest Flight history → MDW 06:50 DEN 08:20 8% 1% 0.2% 84%
WN 2654 Southwest Flight history → MDW 09:55 DEN 11:30 10% 2% 0.2% 68%
WN 2876 Southwest MDW 08:45 DEN 10:17 13% 2% 0.2% no record
WN 2770 Southwest Flight history → MDW 21:25 DEN 23:10 19% 3% 0.6% 58%
WN 2768 Southwest Flight history → MDW 14:30 DEN 16:10 20% 3% 0.5% 52%
WN 2878 Southwest MDW 14:30 DEN 16:01 22% 3% 0.5% no record
WN 2769 Southwest Flight history → MDW 16:15 DEN 18:00 22% 3% 0.5% 62%
WN 2908 Southwest MDW 21:19 DEN 22:49 22% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 1497 Southwest Flight history → MDW 18:00 DEN 19:45 23% 3% 0.6% 68%
WN 2879 Southwest MDW 16:50 DEN 18:21 25% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 4321 Southwest MDW 18:25 DEN 19:55 27% 3% 0.6% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON