Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:11 am at Chicago); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 17:10, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Panama City Beach on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37DL 3131	6h 27m	98%	79%
Southwest Details →	MDW 13:00 → STL 14:10WN 2902	1h 30m St Louis	STL 15:40 → ECP 17:41WN 4070	4h 41m	95%	73%
Southwest Details →	MDW 09:55 → DEN 11:30WN 2654	1h 45m Denver	DEN 13:15 → ECP 17:15WN 4599	7h 20m	99%	71%
Southwest Details →	MDW 10:10 → HOU 12:50WN 2783	55m Houston	HOU 13:45 → ECP 15:38WN 1861	5h 28m	87%	67%
Southwest Details →	MDW 11:00 → DAL 13:15WN 35	2h 05m Dallas	DAL 15:20 → ECP 17:15WN 1307	6h 15m	100%	66%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094	5h 07m	95%	65%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → ECP 17:55DL 3053	5h 14m	96%	60%
Southwest Details →	MDW 14:30 → DEN 16:10WN 2768	1h 45m Denver	DEN 17:55 → ECP 22:05WN 4379	7h 35m	92%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON